By Wolfgang Lehmacher, Board Member @ Wolfgang Lehmacher, Supply Chain, Logistics, Transport and Mikael Lind, Senior strategic research advisor at RISE and (Adjunct) professor in Maritime Informatics at Chalmers
In a world where the unexpected has become the norm, the resilience of supply chain networks is no longer a luxury but a necessity. The COVID-19 pandemic, the Suez Canal blockage, the Red Sea Houthis attacks, and the increasing frequency of climate-related disasters have all highlighted the fragility of the intricate networks that sustain the global economy and our wealth and standard of living. The stakes are high: disruptions ripple across borders, impacting everything from the availability of basic goods to the stability of financial markets. In this context, the ability to anticipate and act on emerging threats before they become crises has never been more critical. This is where Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) move from the periphery to the very heart of supply chain strategy.
The supply chain is the circulatory system of the modern world, connecting producers, suppliers, and consumers in a web that spans continents and the globe. Yet, its very interconnectedness is its Achilles’ heel. A flood in Southeast Asia, a wildfire in California, or a typhoon in the Pacific can disrupt manufacturing, delay shipments, and trigger cascading effects that reach far beyond the initial point of impact. No country can ensure the current quality of life by decoupling from the world; the consequences would be exorbitant. We are moving towards a mix of dependencies and independencies. As climate change accelerates and geopolitical tensions mount, the frequency and complexity of disruptions are set to increase. The question is not if a supply chain will be tested, but when, and how prepared it will be to respond.
Understanding MHEWS and Its Complements
Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems are sophisticated frameworks designed to detect, monitor, and communicate risks from a range of hazards, including meteorological, hydrological, geological, and biological. Unlike traditional, single-hazard warning systems, MHEWS provide a holistic approach, integrating data from multiple sources to deliver timely, accurate, actionable information to decision-makers. At their core, these systems are built on four pillars: risk knowledge, hazard detection and monitoring, warning dissemination, and preparedness and response.
MHEWS are not standalone solutions. Their effectiveness is amplified when complemented by advanced supply chain risk management platforms and digital technologies. Solutions like Everstream Analytics, Resilinc, and Interos leverage artificial intelligence, big data, and real-time monitoring to map supplier networks, assess vulnerabilities, and deliver targeted alerts to businesses. These platforms act as bridges, translating the broad warnings of public MHEWS into supply chain-specific intelligence, enabling companies to anticipate disruptions and act swiftly.
Furthermore, the integration of MHEWS with Internet of Things (IoT) devices, cloud computing, and mobile platforms extends their reach and granularity. IoT sensors can provide real-time data on environmental conditions at manufacturing sites or along transportation routes, which feeds into MHEWS and enhances its predictive power. Cloud-based platforms ensure that warnings and risk assessments are accessible to relevant stakeholders worldwide, breaking down silos and fostering collaboration.
Why MHEWS Are Essential for Supply Chains
The essentiality of MHEWS for supply chain networks lies in their ability to transform uncertainty into manageable risk. In an era defined by volatility and uncertainty, the difference between resilience and vulnerability often comes down to information, its timeliness, accuracy, and relevance. MHEWS provide the early signals that allow companies to move from reactive crisis management to proactive risk mitigation.
The benefits are tangible. Early warnings enable companies to reroute shipments, adjust inventory levels, and communicate with partners and customers before disruptions escalate. They support contingency planning, resource allocation, and the protection of critical assets. In sectors where lead times are long and margins are thin, such as the automotive or electronics industries, a few hours’ advance notice can mean the difference between continuity and costly shutdowns.
Moreover, MHEWS supports compliance with regulatory requirements and enhances reputational capital. As stakeholders, from investors to consumers, demand more transparency and responsibility, companies that leverage MHEWS demonstrate a commitment to risk management and social responsibility. This not only safeguards operations but also strengthens trust and competitiveness in the marketplace.
When MHEWS are integrated into community or business operations, they can reduce the risk profile of insured assets by allowing for early action, such as evacuations, asset protection, or business continuity measures, which can limit losses and claims. Insurers can offer premium discounts or more favorable terms to policyholders who implement risk reduction measures, including those informed by early warning systems.
Gap Analysis: Where the System Falls Short
Despite significant progress, the global MHEWS landscape is marked by persistent gaps. Coverage remains uneven, with the lowest levels in the least developed countries and small island developing states. Many regions lack the infrastructure, technical capacity, or financial resources to implement and maintain robust systems. Data integration and interoperability are ongoing challenges, as information from satellites, ground sensors, and social media must be harmonized and translated into actionable intelligence.
At the company level, the integration of MHEWS data into supply chain decision-making is often ad hoc or incomplete. Small and medium-sized enterprises may lack the expertise or resources to interpret warnings and translate them into practical action. Even among large multinationals, siloed operations and fragmented information flows can delay response times and reduce the effectiveness of early warnings.
Another critical gap is the last mile: ensuring that warnings reach those who need them, in a form they can understand and act upon. Language barriers, digital divides, and varying levels of risk literacy can all impede the flow of information. In some cases, false alarms or unclear messages can erode trust, leading to complacency or inappropriate responses.
Closing the Gaps: Pathways to Progress
Closing these gaps requires a concerted, multi-stakeholder effort. Investment in infrastructure and capacity building is paramount, particularly in vulnerable regions. Governments, international organizations, and the private sector must collaborate to expand monitoring networks, enhance data integration, and ensure that systems are maintained and updated. Open data initiatives and standardized protocols can facilitate interoperability and accelerate innovation.
At the company level, the integration of MHEWS data into supply chain risk management must become standard practice. This means embedding early warning signals into enterprise resource planning systems, scenario planning, and decision-support tools. Training and capacity building are essential, ensuring that staff at all levels understand how to interpret warnings and translate them into action.
Public-private partnerships offer a powerful model for advancing MHEWS. By sharing data, costs, and expertise, governments and businesses can co-create solutions that serve both public safety and commercial resilience. Feedback loops, where companies report on the effectiveness of warnings and share operational data, can help refine and improve systems over time.
The Role of Companies: From Beneficiaries to Contributors
Companies are not just passive recipients of early warnings; they can be active participants in the MHEWS ecosystem. By integrating MHEWS data into their operations, businesses can enhance their resilience and contribute to the broader system. Sharing supply chain data, participating in pilot projects, and supporting innovation all help to strengthen the collective capacity to anticipate and manage risk.
Moreover, companies can advocate for stronger MHEWS at the policy level, highlighting the business case for investment and the economic benefits of resilience. By aligning their sustainability and risk management strategies with public initiatives, businesses can amplify their impact and drive systemic change.
This means moving beyond compliance and box-ticking to a culture of openness, preparedness, and collaboration. It means investing in technology, training, and partnerships that extend the reach and effectiveness of MHEWS. It also means recognizing that resilience is not a zero-sum game: the benefits of a robust early warning system accrue to everyone, from producers to consumers, from local communities to global markets.
Conclusion: The Surprising Power of Foresight
As we stand at the crossroads of escalating risk and exploding technological capability, the value of MHEWS comes into focus. These systems are not just tools for crisis management; they are enablers of foresight, agility, and shared prosperity. In a world obsessed with speed and efficiency, it is the capacity to pause, anticipate, and prepare that also will define the winners of tomorrow. Supply chains that embrace MHEWS are not merely surviving the storms; they are learning to dance in the rain, turning risk into opportunity and uncertainty into a catalyst for performance, innovation, and growth.
About the Author
Wolfgang Lehmacher Board Member @ Wolfgang Lehmacher, Supply Chain, Logistics, Transport
Wolfgang Lehmacher is a partner at Anchor Group and an advisor at Topan AG. The former director at the World Economic Forum, and CEO Emeritus of GeoPost Intercontinental, is an advisory board member of The Logistics and Supply Chain Management Society, ambassador F&L, advisor GlobalSF and RISE, and founding member of the think tanks Logistikweisen and NEXST. He is also the co-author of the Practical Playbook for Maritime Decarbonisation and co-editor of the book Maritime Decarbonization
Mikael Lind Professor of Maritime Informatics
Mikael Lind is the world’s first (adjunct) Professor of Maritime Informatics engaged at Chalmers, and Research Institutes of Sweden (RISE). He is an expert contributor at World Economic Forum, Europe’s Digital Transport Logistic Forum (DTLF), and UN/CEFACT. He is coeditor of the first two books on Maritime Informatics, and is coauthor of the Practical Playbook for Maritime Decarbonisation and co-editor of the book Maritime Decarbonization.
